Jonathan H. Todd

Finance, Investing, Economics

Tag: us politics (page 1 of 6)

Americans might be too optimistic about the U.S. economy. For now.

Where GDP goes, consumers follow.

Yesterday the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q1, below estimates of 0.9%. There were some positive underlying trends within the report, but the market took this as a disappointment.

The bigger worry is that the GDP report and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment – which measures how people feel about the prospects of economic growth and their own budgets – track each other.

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What the real fed funds rate says about the U.S. economy

The real fed funds rate has sat below zero since the Financial Crisis. What does this mean for the U.S. economy?

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Investors won’t short market, but option hedges have surged

With so many unknowns in Washington, few investors want to explicitly short the market. But paying for insurance to protect on the downside is increasingly appealing to many investors.

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William Blair’s Brian Singer on the link between populism and asset allocation

Brian Singer, CFA, of William Blair discusses the linkage between geopolitics – especially populism – and asset allocation.

What are some of the main investment factors investment managers should consider in today’s environment?

Three primary factors: central bank behavior, geopolitics, and populism. Central banks have spent a long time building their balance sheets, and now we have to look at a long time unwinding the balance sheets. Geopolitics–the world now is geopolitically unstable. It wasn’t that way when I first got into the industry, but now we have to take account of those developments around the world. And then, finally, populism. Populism is a huge movement, and it’s a movement that stands for nothing. It stands against something, and that’s the existing elite.

When political consolidation hurts: Brexit version

Theresa May should get a full vote of confidence from the Tories, but will that actually result in real policy? Ask Donald Trump.

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Where Does the Dollar Go From Here?

The dollar has become the bellwether for the Trump administration’s economic policies, but it’s unclear where the greenback will go from here.

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Watching the Post-Election 2/10 Spread

The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries provides a good benchmark for how investors feel about the Trump administration.

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Economic Growth Matters. So Does Inequality.

Politicians should focus on growing the economy to help those left behind. But that’s not enough – inequality still looms large over capitalism.
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Make Political Economy Great Again

Economics has isolated itself to pure mathematics. We could use a bit more political economy, the philosophical style of yesterday’s economists like Schumpeter and Marshall.

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The Universal Basic Income Crowd is a Cult. But So Are EITC Expansion Supporters.

Support for the UBI is often irrational, but the EITC also has its warts. Both change incentive structures around wages, which can bring big economic risks.
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